Folks,
In my article for this week’s Energy and Capital, I review some current events of interest to peak oil observers. There are some disturbing trends developing around the world–in particular fuel shortages–and it’s important to keep one’s ear to the ground.
–C
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Folks,
In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I review some of the studies that have tried to assign a value to all the externalities and hidden subsidies of the oil business, to show that oil really isn’t cheaper than renewables (not by a long shot, as it turns out). I hope you find this enlightening!
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Folks,
This week I did a “big picture” summary report about the current data on peak oil. I encourage you to look this over carefully and pass it around because I think it’s important to educate people about where we really stand in terms of energy supply with all the hokum and wild assertions being thrown around in the media.
It has charts and stuff so it was produced as a PDF. You can download it from GRL or from Green Chip Stocks.
Please feel free to shoot me any questions or comments, and hey, invite a friend to sign up for this email newsletter…haven’t had any new subscribers in a while.
Cheers,
–C
Folks,
A new peak oil documentary is out, and it’s quite good. It was done for Ireland’s national broadcaster, RTÉ , so it’s focused on Ireland, but the similarities between their dependency on oil and the U.S.’s are quite striking.
For example:
Plus, you get to see Colin Campbell interviewed in his home environment! It’s about an hour long so get yourself a cuppa or something.
Check it out: Future Shock: End of the Oil Age
–C
This column from Tom Whipple was so good, I decided to repost the whole thing. For those of you who don’t know Tom’s work, he regularly writes a column on peak oil for The Falls Church News-Press of Virgina and is one of the most astute observers of peak oil data around. He’s one of the best and I have cribbed liberally from his work. Add ’em to your Google Reader!
–C
The Peak Oil Crisis: Approaching The Cliff
By Tom Whipple
The Falls Church News-Press
Thursday, 21 June 2007
Last weekend across southern South Dakota the pumps
went dry. Gas terminals from Sioux Falls to Yankton to Sioux City were
empty. “There is simply not enough fuel coming down the pipeline into the
delivery system” said a BP station owner. Eventually the tankers were sent
to Nebraska to find gas. A minor glitch in the distribution? Possibly, but
more likely a harbinger of more serious problems to come.
Meanwhile, I would like to tell you that Congress,
which has been debating energy bills for the last two weeks, is getting
ready to pass legislation that will make our lives easier during the
troubled years ahead. Sadly, I cannot. From their public pronouncements
and posturing, it is unlikely more than a dozen members of Congress have
the slightest idea of what 2007 energy legislation should be trying to
accomplish in an urgent manner.
Many of the just-barely-in-the-majority Democrats,
especially in the Senate, are on the right track, with proposals to
improve average gasoline consumption, and to increase the use of renewable
energy. Scattered here and there are conservation measures and R&D
money for more efficient something or others, but from the perspective of
imminent oil depletion, the proposals are too little, too late. Setting
efficiency goals for 10 or 15 years from now is absurd when the problems
to solve may be upon us in 15 or 20 months, or, if the real alarmists are
right, in 15 or 20 weeks.
However inadequate the Democrats’ proposals may be,
they pale in comparison to the absurdity of the opposition to energy
legislation forming on Capitol Hill. Detroit, in conspiracy with the coal
and electric industries, is mounting a full court press to see that little
gets through this Congress to upset the status quo – mild efficiency
standards, no greenhouse gas regulation, no renewable energy mandates.
From the opposition’s point of view, if Congress wants to do anything,
then it might be OK for them to bankroll the R&D so we can convert
good old American coal into our gasoline; don’t even think about taxing
energy, but a few more subsidies might be nice.
With crucial Senate votes scheduled for later this
week, it is still too early to judge what the final legislation will look
like, but it is starting to look as if we are going to arrive at the
precipice of oil depletion without Congress having done much of anything
to mitigate the situation. The American automobile industry is clearly on
its way to committing suicide; the coal industry does not seem to realize
its days are numbered; and the electric industry seems to have no notion
that, within a lifetime, fossil fuels and perhaps even some forms of
nuclear energy are going to have to be replaced.
As a civilization, we are all to blame. Most Americans
are showing little inclination to cut back on driving. In study after
study we tell interviewers we are willing to spend our last nickel,
mortgage the farm, and deprive our grandchildren before we will give up
driving. We are all heading towards the cliff together.
Not much happened in the last week to tell us just how
close we are to the cliff. There is a general strike going on in Nigeria
that so far does not seem to be affecting oil production. Nigerian strikes
are usually settled quickly, but there is a new president in charge so
there could be surprises in store. In the Niger Delta, the insurgency
bubbles along, despite the nominal ceasefire, with still more oil being
shut-in by the insurgents during the past week.
From the perspective of oil production, Iraq continues
to hold its own. OPEC is still refusing to consider production increases
and the Chinese imports of crude oil continue to increase.
This week’s U.S. oil status report was a strange one.
U.S. refinery utilization plunged to what should be an abysmally low 87.6
percent, but at the same time the refineries managed to produce the same
amount of gasoline as the week before. Unless there is something wrong
with the numbers, this confirms that improvements made to our refineries
in recent years are now allowing them to squeeze considerably more
gasoline out of each barrel of crude — a definite plus. Imports increased
a bit, resulting in U.S. gasoline stockpiles growing by 1.8 million
barrels last week. There are still major shortages along the East Coast
and the summer driving season is almost here. There seem to be some
unusually large anomalies in this week’s report, however, so there may be
revisions ahead.
In general, the gasoline stockpiles situation now can
be categorized as serious rather than dire. We seem to be getting the
gasoline we need without our refineries working too well and so far we
seem to be able to find enough gasoline to import. From here through Labor
Day it depends on how much we all drive and of course the hurricanes. None
are yet in sight.
Folks,
I have been wondering what the 600th GetRealList article would turn out to be. How appropriate that it would be this, a bit of real-life satire about oil and global warming.
If was a great prank: nobody got hurt (well, maybe a few egos); it was a trenchant critique; they totally fell for it. I think Abbie Hoffman would be proud.
Think their prank was far-fetched? Well then consider this sardonic quip from Prof. Tad Patzek of UC Berkeley, on the excessively optimistic numbers quoted by the DOE/USDA on the crop yield potential for biofuels: “To utilize all residues, I suggest to also process fresh corpses into biofuels.”
If you don’t know who the Yes Men are (or even if you do) check out their Web site and some of their projects. What they do is just the antidote for the mass-media controlled hallucination that passes for reality in these crazy times.
On a related note, a friend called me this afternoon and said that he saw a banner hung over the road in Pacifica, CA saying “My country invaded Iraq and all I got was this expensive gas.”
Sounds like another entry for the Freeway Blogger: http://www.freewayblogger.com/archive.htm
Nothing like a little harmless civil disobedience to shake people out of that hallucination. And boy, do we have one going now. The more the reality of peak oil and global warming and what we’re doing (and not doing) comes into focus, the more amazed I am at how wide a reality gap–no, a reality gulf–there is between the things we’re doing today and the reality that’s just around the next bend. It’s enough to make you feel a little schizo.
Folks,
In this week’s article for Energy and Capital I review the tangled web of energy legislation currently making its way through Congress, and consider the profit opportunities thereof.
By the way, apologies to those of you who tried to catch my radio interiview on Thursday; it was pre-empted at the last minute. Hey, that’s the biz!
But if you are so inclined, a couple of new interviews were booked today for Monday and Wednesday of next week:
Hope you all are enjoying some nice summer weather; it certainly has been beautiful on the Left Coast. Have a good weekend!
–C
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Folks,
For this week’s Energy and Capital story, I compare and contrast two of the biggest companies in America–GM and GE–and highlight how embracing the future is much more profitable than clinging to the past.
–C
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Folks,
After bashing Congress in my last piece (“Gump Rules“) for their lack of comprehension of energy, I thought it appropriate to give a little air time to the one person in Congress who really does seem to understand energy (presumably because he was a scientist before he became a Congressman), Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R-MD).
His presentation to Congress back in January about peak oil, and our real energy options going forward, is about as good as it gets. He’s got good data, a sensible read of the big picture, and a plainspoken way of explaining it all. I highly recommend reading the transcript of his remarks, check it out:
Rep. Bartlett’s Peak Oil Presentation to Congress
–C
Folks,
In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I review some very stupid recent actions by Congress and the automotive industry in response to the public outcry over “high” gasoline prices. Don’t be fooled–none of this is going to help one bit. Check it.
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Folks,
In this week’s Energy and Capital article, I review some recent events in California’s quest for renewable energy and the fight against global warming.
In many ways, the rest of the country tends to follow California’s example, so this should be instructive to like-minded individuals everywhere.
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Folks,
In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I share some exciting findings from a geothermal conference I went to a few weeks ago. This is very cool technology and it’s as clean and green as it can be. Check it out.
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Folks,
In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I try to explain, once and for all, that gas prices aren’t high because of gouging by Big Oil, and why boycotts don’t help bring prices down. If you’ve ever received one of those email chain letters that told you not to buy gas on a certain day or from a certain company (like the one that went around again this week), then please forward this article to whomever sent it to you. It’s high time people started to understand the way this system really works.
–C
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Folks,
This week I prepared a detailed report on the natural gas situation in the U.S. (and elsewhere), for Energy and Capital.
The full report (with lots of charts) is available as a PDF file here: Indigestion Over Gas. Or you can just read the short version below.
The implications are clear to me: We’re going to be seeing significantly higher prices for grid electricity and gas-fired heat.
–C
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Folks,
Here is my latest for Energy and Capital, about the results of a new study for the Pentagon which says that it is “imperative” for the Department of Defense to “fundamentally transform” everything they do, immediately, to deal with our dependence on oil.
Since the DoD is the largest energy consumer in the nation, I think this is a very significant development.
–C
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Folks,
Here’s something interesting: an hour-long debate between Steve Forbes and Boone Pickens about peak oil, from the April 24 Milken Institute Global Conference. (For more on this notable event, see “Observations on a Hotel Full of Billionaires”.)
Those are two of the richest guys in the world, so their opinions bear some weight. As longtime readers of GRL know, I’m squarely in Boone’s camp…although I think he has an overly optimistic view of the future of natural gas, given that North American production is past the peak, there is a lot of resistance to siting new LNG import facilities, and the global peak of gas should be right around 2011.
Watch the interview here or download the transcript here.
–C
This is interesting – a new online reality game designed to simulate the impending oil crisis. See the article below and give it a whirl.
Source: http://www.dailydemocrat.com/news/ci_5727769
A San Jose designer is trying to solve a crisis
before it can happen.
By RANDY MYERS/MediaNews staff
Article Created: 04/22/2007 09:09:44 AM
PDT
In a matter of days, gas prices will skyrocket, a dwindling food supply will
rot, and the oil crisis will literally stop Americans in their tracks.
How can you and your loved ones survive a crippling breakdown?
Log in to “World Without Oil,” a free alternate reality game that taps our
collective ingenuity to stop a plausible crisis before it happens. Or at least
prepare a post-Katrina nation to deal better with a disaster.
Sprung from the imagination of San Jose gamemaker Ken Eklund, the 30-day
Internet game begins April 30 at http://www.worldwithoutoil.org.
“Oil’s” creators herald the venture as a first – an alternate reality game
that wrestles with a significant social problem. Another topical game, the
obesity-themed “Fatworld,” is in production.
“This is the alternate reality game that will change reality,” Eklund said.
“People are realizing that (an alternate reality game) is not only a viable
way to teach and entertain people, in many ways it’s better than booklearning.”
Players enter the game by e-mail, phone calls and creating real or imagined
personas on MySpace. What they say will shape the game.
Organizers hope more tech-literate players will blog, make YouTube videos and
post audio clips and photos.
Most difficult for organizers will be harnessing the collective brainpower so
it doesn’t explode into chaos.
To provide cohesion, eight characters will be gamemasters for the virtual
crisis. Players drop in at any time to offer their thoughts about dealing with
issues they might encounter, from soaring prices to trying to commute.
“We’re asking people to come and write the story and that’s mainly because
the subject is too big for any small group of people,” Eklund said.
“The No. 1 challenge is that people’s imagination is so great,” Eklund said.
“We’re going to be running as fast we can to keep up with people. ”
When the game ends, its makers expect the postings will provide insight and
solutions to an oil crisis.
Expect growing demand for games like “Oil,” said Jane McGonigal, a Berkeley
futurist and game designer for the Institute for the Future in Palo Alto.
Beyond its social resonance, “Oil” illustrates what Web 2.0 is all about,
said McGonigal, an “Oil” collaborator. She appeared this week at a Web 2.0
conference in San Francisco. (Web 2.0 is the term used to describe the
internet’s much-debated next stage.)
“Web 2.0 is all about participatory culture,” she said. “Nobody’s just
receiving content, everything is collaborative including content and analysis.”
Web 2.0 draws it together, and so does “Oil.”
“Oil” players visit the website and plunge into a drama orchestrated by the
49-year-old Eklund.
“I was looking for an issue that affected everyone,” he said. Hurricane
Katrina and its devastating aftermath, which produced a surge in gasoline
prices, fueled “Oil.”
“Katrina definitely left me with the impression that in times of crisis you
need to have your own resources,” he said. “You can’t depend on a helicopter
swooping from the sky to save you. You better have a plan you can rely on . . .
Oil just fit the bill because it is the oxygen of our country.”
Focusing on game solutions, might equip Americans to deal with a real crisis,
he said. Eklund expects fresh insights to come from the large group of online
players.
The resulting game community will likely return to the real world to evaluate
and possibly cut consumption, he said. Regardless of outcomes, the game
sidesteps political posturing and fingerpointing. “Oil” was funded through a
Corporation of Public Boardcasting grant.
Educators wanting to keep pace with internet-age students have expressed
interest in using “Oil” in class.
“I can’t tell you how many educators and nonprofit organizers I’ve talked to
see this as the next generation’s type of curriculum,” McGongial said.
The game’s topic and interactive nature sold Jeff Towey at Richmond’s Making
Waves. He plans to have his afterschool students patricpate. He is particularly
intrigued by how reality games can cover academic subjects, from science to
English.
“It’s not straightforward like writing an essay,” he said.
“Oil” isn’t the first game to tackle social issues.
The nascent movement for serious-minded games includes MTV posting at
darfurisdying.com a Darfur game created by college students and the
International Center on Nonviolent Conflict’s “A Force More Powerful,” an
activists’ how-to for non-aggression at http://www.afmpgame.com.
What distinguishes “Oil” is that it is an alternate reality game aimed at
benefitting the public, McGonigal said.
Can it achieve such a lofty goal? A UC-Berkeley professor of practical art
and new media hopes so.
“(Oil dependency) is an extremely serious matter, and I think it’s good to
engage with these questions,” said Greg Niemeyer.
“There’s an aspect to it that is a little hard to translate into a game. Some
of its seriousness might be obscured by the fact that we’re encountering it in a
game.”
“What we need to learn is what are our core social values and how to find a
balance without an abundance of resources? That’s a huge question. If this game
will bring us to that it could be very successful. If it doesn’t it’s too bad.”
| Where to play • To check out “World Without Oil,” visit http://www.worldwithoutoil.org. • “World Without Oil” is a joint project of PBS’s Independent Lens and
• To learn more about alternate reality gaming, visit the Alternate • To read what gamers think of the idea, go to http://forums.unfiction.com/forums/viewtopic.php?t=18592.
|
Folks,
This longish article was broken into two parts for Energy and Capital (here and here), but I have reprinted it whole here for convenience.
In it, I discuss the paradox that many highly-anticipated oil and gas projects around the world are being delayed or cancelled due to the high cost of oil…when the high cost of oil was supposed to make them economical.
I think this is an important dynamic to be aware of as we cross into post-oil peak terrority. Our expectations for future production may not be fulfilled.
–C (more…)
Folks,
Here’s my latest piece for the Green Chip Stocks subscription file, which they graciously allowed me to reprint here.
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Folks,
Here is my latest for Energy and Capital, about the intense lobbying for alternative vehicle designs (“hypercars”) and alternative liquid fuels, by a slew of former statesmen and CIA heads. These security hawks are all about renewable energy. Since I now find myself allied with some members of the neo-con rogues gallery, I think it’s a fascinating movement…especially as contrasted with the foot-dragging approach of the administration.
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