I appeared on the Financial Sense program again yesterday (Oct 30, 2009), and discussed the implications of the Megaprojects study, the problems of the EIA’s supply forecasting as well as the conundrum of oil price forecasting.
You can download the show (1 hour) here: RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media | Mp3
My segment begins at 36:50.
I had the pleasure of chatting with @JeffreyLin last week about the basics of peak oil on the stock traders’ web site FINZ.tv. Here’s the video:
Trader Chat: Chris Nelder Pt. 1 – How Accessible is the Oil That’s Left?
For Green Chip Stocks last week, I explained why oil prices may be trapped on a “narrow ledge,” and why that’s good for cleantech investors.
[Part 2 of a series of reports from the 2009 ASPO Peak Oil Conference.]
Sorry for the delayed post this week–I am just back from the ASPO-USA conference where I was so busy that I had no time for anything else. I have about 69 pages of notes that I will clean up and post to the ASPO site next week, so I have plenty of new material to share with you all.
First I must mention that as I hoped when I wrote this article, Gov. Schwarzenegger did in fact sign SB 32 into law at the last minute last Sunday, which should be a nice shot in the arm for solar projects on commercial buildings in the state. He also signed AB 920, authored by my own district’s Jared Huffman I’m proud to say, which is even more exciting because it will allow residential and small commercial solar systems to get paid by the utilities for producing more power than they consume. Instead of being incentivized to under-size their systems and use up every last watt they produce, as has been the case for many years, they’ll be encouraged to install larger systems and conserve. The positive implications of the bill are broader than most people realize and I will have to find some time to write about it soon.
For Green Chip Stocks last week, I surveyed some recent good news on feed-in tariffs for renewable energy, electric cars, energy monitoring on and off the smart grid, and progress in U.S. energy policy.
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I’m on my way to the annual conference with the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO-USA) this weekend, an event I look forward to all year. I expect to have much to report, so stay tuned! In the meantime…
I’m pleased to announce that I have joined up with logi Energy, a brand-new hedge fund that has some very smart strategies for investing in oil and gas with a specific focus on peak oil. The team was founded by some actual rocket scientists and petroleum geologists(including a couple of longtime contributors to The Oil Drum) as well as seasoned investors and traders, and I’m very excited about the fund’s potential. It’s about time a hedge fund targeted the peak oil event directly.
The logi Energy management team had an interview this week on Jim Puplava’s Financial Sense podcast. On the call was:
Check it out, and if you are a qualified investor who might be interested in exploring what the fund has to offer, drop me a line.
logi Energy Interview on Financial Sense – posted 10/10/2009
I had a 1-hr. video interview this week with trader extraordinaire Matt Davio (@MissTrade on Twitter) and his buddy Charlie Rich, who has been working on “eco cottages” and sustainable agriculture in Bend, Oregon. Definitely worth a watch if you are interested in the implications of peak oil for food supply, and the issues surrounding sustainable agriculture.
An article yesterday in the UK’s Independent newspaper by Robert Fisk claimed that “In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading.” It set off an immediate firestorm of response and attacks on Fisk’s credibility (one financial analyst I respect called it “a punk piece by a tireless controversialist”) which made for some interesting reading today. Assuming that the rumor hit around noon EST yesterday, then the dollar fell from 76.7 to 76.3 on the report–a negligible move in light of the action of the last week.
Until someone actually names names and provides some authenticated details, it’s impossible to know how true Fisk’s allegations may be. I have heard noises along these lines for at least five years running, and so far have not found any convincing evidence that such moves are an impending reality, so at this point I am not rendering an opinion. I will say that it does seem likely and rational that eventually the dollar will be at least partially displaced as a global reserve currency and/or the currency of choice for the global oil trade.
In the meantime, it’s worthwhile to remain alert for developments in this story with real credibility. Here is a sampling of responses to the Fisk article I rounded up today, most of which rebut it.
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For Energy and Capital last week, I surveyed the explosion of high speed rail around the world, and prescribed some stiff medicine for the U.S.
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For Green Chip Stocks last week, I separated the policies on climate and energy that work from the ones that don’t, and found the U.S. lagging far behind the rest of the world.
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For Energy and Capital last week, I updated the peak oil debate, refreshed my outlook on oil supply and demand, and reviewed my predictive track record.
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For Green Chip Stocks last week, I reviewed the latest announcements from thin-film solar manufacturer Nanosolar on their groundbreaking technology and its potential to print the cheapest solar cells in the world.
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For last week’s Energy and Capital, I reviewed China’s buying spree of natural resources, and argued that we may need them for the energy revolution more desperately than anyone now imagines.
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For Green Chip Stocks this week, I respond to the most recent salvos of peak oil deniers including Michael Lynch, Daniel Yergin and Raymond Learsy.
See also a few selected responses from other writers.
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In addition to my response to the recent rash of peak oil denials, here are some selected responses I happened to come across by other authors.
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For my Energy and Capital piece last week, I took a hard look at what “sustainable” really means, and questioned the sustainability of realistic energy solutions. Perhaps human nature, not technology, is the real challenge that we face.
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For my Energy and Capital article this week, I dig into GM’s claim that the Chevy Volt will get 230 MPG, and try to calculate the real cost of driving.
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For Energy and Capital last week, I offered some predictions that may sound crazy now but are actually quite likely, starting with peak oil and moving on to a slew of other mispriced risks.
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In my Energy and Capital article this week, I support the impending CFTC crackdown and hope that once the sound and fury over bogeymen speculators subsides, we can have a real dialogue about our energy future.
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For Energy and Capital last week, I weighed the bullish and bearish factors for natural gas prices, and concluded the bears are all wet. It’s time to buy gas.
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I had a short guest editorial in Forbes this week, where I gave my macro view on energy and the economy as concisely as possible. It’s a sidebar to a feature they’re doing on a book by one of their staffers, Christopher Steiner, titled $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better.
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