Folks,

Last week I had the privilege of attending the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) Third Annal Oil Conference in Houston, where I saw presentations from some of the best and brightest in the industry. I am posting my notes (47 pages) here for the benefit of others. I hope you find them useful.
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I did a brief (about 10 minute) call-in interview on the Invest Express show on Business Talk Radio last Friday. If you want to check it out, you can download it here.

–C

Folks,

I am finally re-posting my report on Burning Man to the blog. It was originally posted to Energy and Capital (part 1 and part 2), and is also featured on The Oil Drum. I hope you find some inspiration of your own in it!
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Now that this entire article has been published to Energy and Capital (Part 1 and Part 2) as well as TheOilDrum (Part 1 and Part 2), I am reposting it complete here. I welcome your feedback on it!

Cheers,

–Chris
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Folks,

I have done a fairly comprehensive high-level analysis of the tar sands, which is going out in two parts because it’s a bit long. You can see the first part here: Energy and Capital. I will post the whole thing to GRL when the second part goes out next week.

And with that, I’m off to Burning Man for the week. This year the theme is “Green Man,” with a focus on renewable energy, sustainability and all things green, so it should be interesting! Hopefully I’ll get some good material for future articles out of it.

Have a great Labor Day Weekend everybody!

–C

Folks,

I was interviewed by a CNBC journalist about the markets a week ago, but wasn’t able to find the article until today. I was quoted in it along with other investing pundits. Here is the article, “Commodities Stocks Still A Good Bet Despite Market Swoon.”
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Folks,

I had to pass along a tip regarding last night’s Daily Show.

Quoting SilentPatriot at Crooksandliars:

In perhaps the most brilliant segment on “The Daily Show” I’ve ever seen, last night Jon ran through the last three decades of United States intervention in the Middle East to show how incoherent, ass-backwards and counter-productive it has been.

I agree–it was brilliant. And included the 1994 Cheney video.

Find it on the Comedy Central site by scrolling down the Most Recent Videos column to “America to the Rescue,” or find it on Crooksandliars here.

–C

Passing this along just for fun, because I’m both an energy geek and a Zappa fan. I haven’t ever come across this before, but it’s a short TV commercial that Zappa did for the Portland utility company. Gotta love it.

Download it here

–C

Folks,

In this week’s Energy and Capital article, I assess the recent correction in the stock market and what it means for renewable energy investors…with a nod to Blue Oyster Cult.

–C
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Folks,

If you follow the markets, you are more than aware that they have been melting down for the last three weeks, with the Dow crashing hundreds of points in a day. For those of us who trade stocks, it’s been a very volatile time, with fear and greed hashing it out big-time.

The cause of all this was the “sudden” realization that a huge number of adjustable rate mortgages out there were sold to people with poor credit, and that many of those mortgages are about to have their interest rates raised, leading to a large number of defaults. This in turn caused the rapid devaluation of many other investing vehicles which were levered to those loans, which in turn has sharply devalued the businesses of some of the biggest banks on Wall Street, and caused carnage in the hedge fund world (like, losing 60% of their portfolio values).

I won’t try to get into more detail than that here–there is plenty to read elsewhere on the subject written by more knowledgeable observers–but I’ll give you my bottom line, based on my research: The economy is in trouble, banks are in trouble, there’s not a whole lot that the Fed can do about it, and it is going to take a while to unwind…not days or weeks, but months or even years.

Consequently, I have unloaded almost all my long positions and gotten short via ETFs: SKF and SRS. I believe that this is a good time to be in cash or in a defensive posture. But the markets have been extremely volatile and irrational. There has already been a rally since the first selloff two weeks ago–when the Dow and oil had both reached record highs–but it has been a classic “dead cat bounce” and more than a few investors (like myself) swooped in on an apparent buying opportunity, only to get stopped out of those positions a day or a week later.

Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!

That’s about all I’ll say on the markets right now.

Moving on…I feel compelled to comment on the announced resignation of “Hot” Karl Rove, since he’s been a regular whipping boy in these pages, but I’m not sure what to say. In a sense, I think I felt safer knowing approximately where he was and what he was doing. Who knows what his next trick will be? But of this I’m sure: he’s not going anywhere. I have no doubt that he will continue to work on Republican campaigns and do everything he can to divide and conquer America by actively destroying its social fabric, pitting us against each other in order to scrape a few more votes his way. Just for grins, feel free to email me your best guess at Rove’s next gig.

Finally, I did a short (~6 minute) guest appearance at the daily online podcast The Real Story with Aaron Task today. Check it out here (“No Shelter From the Selling”). My bit starts around 27:00.

Keep your powder dry and your stops tight, and good luck everybody!

–C

Folks,

In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I review some recent news reports from around the world, and the toll that high fuel prices are taking on the poorer parts of the world. One of my editors called it “pretty heavy” and another said “Scary article. Wait till the poor in America’s inner cities can no longer afford heat in the winter or A/C in the summer. I’m expecting riots.”

I hope it doesn’t come to that any time soon. But there is certainly cause for vigilance. What is happening in the Third World today will likely happen in the First World in a few short years.
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Folks,

I did another interview on Ken Brown’s show on Wednesday. We discussed recent action in the markets, the situation with oil and renewables, and the energy legislation that was recently passed in the House.

You can download it here (33 mins, 84 MB).

–C

Folks,

This recent opinion piece from the CEO of Shell deserves wider circulation, so I’m re-posting it here (boldface mine). Although van der Veer has been much more forthcoming about the reality of energy supplies than the rest of his Big Oil peers (when are the rest of the big oil majors going to own up to their own exaggerated reserve estimates, like Shell did?), this is remarkably straight-shootin’ stuff.

When the CEO of one of the world’s largest oil companies says that supply is going to have to struggle to keep up with demand, you can take it to the bank.
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For this week’s Energy and Capital column, I adapted the famous poem by Gil Scott-Heron to discuss renewable energy.
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Folks,

I did another short (~ 5 minute) radio interview this morning on Traders Nation with Kurt Schemers in Phoenix, AZ, if you want to check it out:

Chris Nelder interview on Traders Nation

–C

Folks,

In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I finally get around to a detailed debunking of the “hydrogen economy.” Hydrogen has its uses, but I don’t believe it will ever be a significant part of the transportation infrastructure.

–C
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Folks,

Here’s another excellent story by journalist Jason Leopold on the gaming of the electricity markets that caused the California energy crisis of 2001, and Cheney’s role in the cover-up.
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Folks,

In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I address the buzz du jour: the new forecast on oil supply and demand from the National Petroleum Council. They’re still not acknowledging reality, but they seem to be getting closer.
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Folks,

The IEA’s new report last week had some very stark warnings about the tight balance between oil supply and demand, and projected a possible shortfall of supply by 2010. The report generated a lot of buzz around the world so I felt like I had to comment on it. Here’s my take, for the Energy and Capital newsletter.
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Folks,

If you tried to tune in to my interview on the Ken Brown show last week only to find another interview being broadcast, my apologies. I’m new to the broadcast business, but it seems to be a very flexible environment where last-minute changes to the schedule are common. Such was the case at the Florida radio station hosting my interview last week.

But they were kind enough to give me an MP3 of it, so I can share it with you here. Do note this is a large file–85 MB–so if you’re not on a broadband connection, you might want to let it download overnight or something.

I was pleased to have this opportunity to speak at length (45 minutes) on a broad range of energy topics, and I hope that it is informative and useful to the public. If you listen to it, please drop me a line with your constructive criticism!

Download here: Chris Nelder on the Ken Brown show July 5, 2007

–C