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For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review a host of cancellations and delays of energy projects, and surmise that they are setting us up for an “air pocket” of oil supply within the next year or so.

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In my column for Energy and Capital this week, I tackle the new World Energy Outlook 2008 report from the IEA. It’s the bombshell I expected, and poses a $26 trillion dollar question with a (mostly) renewable energy answer.

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This month’s Vanity Fair has an excellent article on the market meltdown this year, which explains the history and the roles played by Fannie and Freddie, the Fed, hedge funds, and banks, and delves into the nature of fiat money, derivatives, and the other financial instruments that were the tools of our undoing. Fascinating article, very well done, highly recommended!

Wall Street Lays Another Egg

“Either way, Planet Finance has now returned to Planet Earth with a bang. The key figures of the Age of Leverage—the lax central bankers, the reckless investment bankers, the hubristic quants—are now feeling the full force of this planet’s gravity.”

For my Energy and Capital article this week, I review Obama’s energy plan and try to separate the good ideas from the bad ones, ultimately finding in Obama’s win a guaranteed bull market in renewable energy, grid technology, and plug-in hybrids.

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My presentation in Minneapolis was very well received. I sense a growing appreciation out there for messages about resource overshoot and a future of diminishing energy supplies, and it’s giving me just a tiny bit of optimism.

Here’s a short article that I had to recommend to my list on the future of the markets and how we must be prepared to see both wild deflationary and hyperinflationary cycles. Excellent stuff.
Is Volatility Embedded in the System for a Generation?

On a related note, check out this chart of money supply. If you really grok what this means, it sorta tells the whole story right there:

Source: http://www.shadowstats.com/

Here’s another excellent article on the future of global trade and commodity prices: The world isn’t flat, it’s flattened

And finally, a bit of up-to-date political humor: Wassup 2008

Here’s hoping that we can wake up on November 5 to a new day in America, after a clean and uncontested election, with Obama at the helm. We have a lot of work to do…
–C

Here is Part 2 of my highlights from the 2008 ASPO-USA Peak Oil Conference, for Energy and Capital.
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In my article for Energy and Capital this week, I survey the carnage in the stock markets and adopt a solidly defensive stance (with a tip of the hat to Bob Marley). If anybody thinks they can call the bottom of this market, I think they’re just kidding themselves. It ain’t over till it’s over…

Good luck everybody.

–C
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Just a few quick words about the bailout bill today and the markets. But before I get into that, if you wanted to catch my live online TV interview yesterday but were unable to tune in, it is now available in their archives. See http://www.getreallist.com/live-interview-on-cleanskies-tv-today.html for instructions on how to find it.

I think almost everybody expected that if the bailout bill passed the House today, the markets would rally and the good times would start rolling again. It was a tense morning as we watched the debate. The major indexes rose about 3%. And then the vote came.

The bill passed. And then, a couple of very unexpected things happened.

First, the credit markets didn’t move, and the LIBOR spread shot to a new high. That means that the Street considered the bailout to be inadequate to solve the problem at hand–which is liquidity, not just the solvency of a few institutions. In reaction, stocks sold off sharply, and the major indexes all ended the day about 1.5% down, marking the end to a wicked week.

Second, although the bill contained an 8-year extension to the 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) for solar installations, which was widely ancitipated and should have meant a banner day for the whole sector, solar shares sold sharply with the rest of the market, ending the day down as much as 8% after rising as much as 10% earlier in the day. Woof, how’s that for volatility, and counterintutive moves?

Meanwhile there were reports of widespread bloodletting in the hedge fund world, leading to more forced redemptions, indiscriminate selling to meet margin requirements, etc. See http://tinyurl.com/4uxdph. In short, the selling is continuing to feed on itself.

The take-home? Passing a bailout bill is one thing; unfreezing the credit markets is another. It ain’t over till it’s over, and we’re nowhere near done with this mess. Monday could be brutal, unless we have a new round of Sunday night shenanigans.

For a good summary of what happened today, check out my buddy Aaron Task’s end of day post:

Roubini: ‘Much More Radical’ Action Needed as Bailout Fails to Lift Confidence

I also recommend poking around at the archives there on Tech Ticker for some excellent insights from Howard Lindzon and Nouriel Roubini in particular.

Finally, for those who somehow missed everything I’ve been saying for the last month or more: get out, stay in cash, keep yer head down and good luck!

Now let’s try to have a nice weekend and forget this week ever happened, if only for a little while.

In my Energy and Capital article for this week, I considered some insight from my Depression era daddy, and devised a “Depression Portfolio” to help weather the stormy markets.

–C
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Folks,

In this week’s article for Energy and Capital, I contend that while most of the economy still has a long way to fall, energy and commodities will yield standout gains.

Stay tuned for more guest editorials coming up in the next week.
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