For SmartPlanet this week, I reviewed new data from petroleum geologist Arthur Berman showing that total U.S. gas production has plateaued for the past two years, in sharp contrast to the data offered by EIA. Production is actually declining in major shale gas plays because it has become unprofitable, and the outlook for future production is becoming more dubious. According to Berman, the shale gas gold rush is over. Read it here: Everything you know about shale gas is wrong
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For SmartPlanet this week, I compared the new expected demands for US natural gas to the data on supply, and concluded that exporting LNG could be a grave policy error. Read it here: The Siren song of LNG exports
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For SmartPlanet this week I offered a deep dive into the data on coal-fired power, and found a sector that’s well into decline, but not just because of EPA clean air regulations. Read it here: Regulation and the decline of coal power
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For SmartPlanet this week, I took up a reader’s suggestion and offered three different outlooks on the next five years: the good, the bad, and the likely. Read it here:

Three deformations of the apocalypse
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I have a new piece published in Slate today, examining the oft-repeated claim that we have 100 years’ worth of shale gas resources. In terms of proved reserves, we only have 11 years’ worth. So what’s the deal? Read it here:  What the Frack?

That was originally part of my recent post, The questionable economics of shale gas

I’d also point your attention to a new piece by Reuters, who did some good investigative journalism on top shale gas operator Chesapeake Energy, and accused them of conducting a stealth “land grab” operation by using a series of shell companies: Energy giant hid behind shells in “land grab”

This kind of work is vitally important, because the majority of press about shale gas still consists of wild-eyed optimism and verbatim repetition of industry propaganda. For example, this new piece in the Wall Street Journal.

There is still plenty of energy-illiterate press going around, such as the recent rash of articles that misinterpreted the US becoming a net exporter of refined products as being a net exporter of oil, when we are still the world’s top importer of oil. It’s pathetic. The data are freely and publicly available, so why are these egregious errors still being propagated in high-profile publications? I hope my recent pieces help to clear things up just a little.

Postscript: Al Gore blogged on my story January 8, 2012

Corrections: Most regrettably, I discovered two typos in the story some weeks after it was published:

1) “At the 2010 rate of American consumption—about 24 tcf per year—that would be a 95-year supply of gas, which apparently has been rounded up to 100 years.” should have been “At the 2009 rate of American consumption—about 22.8 tcf per year—that would be a 95-year supply of gas, which apparently has been rounded up to 100 years.” At the 2010 consumption rate of 24.089 tcf/yr, the 2,170,000 bcf estimate would last 90.082 years. (Therefore, one could say that one year’s increase in US gas consumption shaved five years off the claimed supply.)

2) “It offered a range of estimates, from 43 tcf at 95 percent probability, to 84 tcf at 50 percent probability, to 114 tcf at 5 percent probability.” The high end USGS estimate was 144.1 tcf, not 114.

Postscript November 5, 2012: This article is now available in a German translation, here: http://www.peak-oil.com/2012/11/what-the-frack/

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For SmartPlanet this week, I offered some 2012 predictions for oil, the stock market, and geopolitics, along with some tips on how to maintain your sanity when the world is going crazy.

Read it here: 2012: Terra incognita
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For SmartPlanet this week, I explored some serious questions about the economics of shale gas. Is it a “game-changer,” a Ponzi scheme, or somewhere in between? Read it here: The questionable economics of shale gas (See also the companion piece I wrote for Slate.)
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For SmartPlanet this week, I offered a macro view exploring the common ground between the Occupy movement and the Tea Party — declining energy leading to declining economic surplus — and contemplated the existential questions of what to do about it.

Read it here: Occupy, Tea Party, and the Politics of Less
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For SmartPlanet this week, I suggested community “solar gardens” as a way for towns to transition to renewables in the absence of federal incentives, and shared a dream I had about how one community achieved energy self-sufficiency.

Read it here: Crowdsourcing the energy revolution
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For this week’s SmartPlanet column, I argue for a national feed-in tariff (FiT) in the U.S., and predict that due to its FiTs, Asia will blow the doors off the U.S. solar PV market starting next year. I also explain why we shouldn’t use “grid parity” as our cue to transition to renewables, but rather the cost of new production, where solar is already cheaper than coal and nuclear generation. Read it here:

Why America needs a feed-in tariff
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I made a short guest appearance on France 24 television last night, to talk about the Exxon joint venture deal with Rosneft to explore the Russian Arctic for oil and gas. Here’s the clip, along with some notes on the deal and my perspective.

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See also: Seven Paths to our Energy Future

I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss the upheaval in the Mideast;  Saudi Arabia’s ability to offset lost oil production from Libya; the decline of global oil exports; the ongoing problem of energy illiteracy in America; how the Fed and US policymakers are mired in denial and have backed themselves into a corner on food and energy; how 2011 is shaping up as a replay of 2008; the structural change in the global oil markets and oil prices; “American exceptionalism”; and the importance of hedging your investments against rising oil prices and a falling dollar.

You can download the show (20 mins) here: RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media | MP3

I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Pupalava program this week, to discuss a new report from Shell outlining two approaches to the unfolding peak oil  crisis: a “Scramble” scenario and a “Blueprints” scenario. We also talked about the Wikileaks ‘revelations’ about Saudi oil reserves; ExxonMobil’s admission that it’s having trouble replacing its reserves; the challenges of energy transition; the abysmal predictive record of CERA; and the general progress of the oil industry, elected officials, and the public in coming to grips with our energy reality, as it appears we have entered what I call a “confession” phase.

You can download the show here: RealPlayer | WinAmp|  Windows Media| MP3

My segment (24 mins) is first.

Recommended related reading:

The Coming Misery that Big Oil Discusses Behind Closed Doors – Steve LeVine, Foreign Policy

The IEA’s Come-to-Jesus Moment – My commentary on IEA’s modeling from July 2007

Last night I made a guest appearance (by telephone) on Dr. Phil Pearlman’s “Market Shrinkology” show on Stocktwits.tv.  He featured my 2010 prediction and we discussed my macro outlook, my “Great Contraction” thesis, oil prices, and other subjects. My thanks to Phil for giving a platform to my outlier views!

Watch it here: Market Shrinkology – January 18, 2011

I appeared on the Financial Sense program with Jim Pupalava today, to discuss my “narrow ledge” outlook for oil prices in 2011; my vision for the next five years; the global balance of the oil market between the OECD and Asia; and my new thesis that we have entered what I am calling The Great Contraction. We also discussed the current perspective of OPEC; the projections of the IEA and EIA; the outlook for future oil supply; the final report from the federal oil spill commission; and the inevitable call for clamping down on oil speculators (which the CFTC did today – that didn’t take long!).

You can download the show (19 minutes) here:

http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2011-0113-1.mp3

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Last October, at the 2009 ASPO peak oil conference, I was hanging out with a posse of fellow energy analysts and investors at the bar late in the evening. The conference organizer came by with a video camera and asked each of us to pretend it was late 2010, and offer our observations on the year. Here was mine–all in all, not bad!

I’m particularly pleased that I nailed the price band for oil, predicting that it would remain in the $70-90 range. Here’s the proof:

I offered some additional predictions for 2010 and beyond in these two articles, written in December 2009:

Investment Themes for the Next Decade

Energy Outlook for the Next Decade, Part 2

I appeared on the Financial Sense program with Jim Pupalava today, to discuss the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2010 report in which they said that conventional oil actually peaked in 2006, but that unconventional liquids would continue to grow, along with supply from undiscovered fields. In this interview, I attempted to explain how the IEA develops their forecasts, and how to read between the lines.

You can download the show (14 minutes) here:
http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2010-1125-1.mp3

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